What dictates the outcome of wars, what shapes empires, and what moves the flow of history? 

Great leaders, brilliant ideas, and new technology are important factors, but they are only relevant in the context of the minutiae. Leaders are only as good as their followers. Grand strategy cannot outmaneuver disease, low morale, or the weather. Technology is contingent on the ability and mentality of its users. This is why dictators hold elections. Why cartels and terrorists provide communities with food, aid, and security. Why Sun Tzu does not recommend assassinating successful generals but sabotaging soldiers. Even when they are reduced to numbers, it is the general population that shapes our world. It is the minutiae that dictates the flow of history.

If we want to understand the world today and make predictions about tomorrow, we need to pay attention to the little things, to the details. As humans we tend to lean into simple narratives, to reduce complexity, and trust compelling stories. When analyzing the chaos of the world today, it is all too easy to limit our focus to major players and to reduce complexity. Even when looking for nuance, we ignore the seemingly insignificant and miss the context. Not only does this damage our predictive power and guarantee miscalculations, it wrongfully portrays the average person as irrelevant and creates artificial limits on autonomy while obfuscating responsibility. 

By sharing my experiences and conversations, I hope to provide insight into often-overlooked details and perspectives. In doing so, add to the collective understanding of how the world works.