The Minutiae
It is in the minutiae that we find the flow of history.
It is in the minutiae that we find the flow of history.
Restaurants, cafes, and boutique shops were closed with paper signs taped to doors saying, ‘closed from 15:00 – 18:00.’ Despite the chill in the air, the grey sky, and the empty shops, the mood on Rustaveli was festive. People gathered in large groups or stood in front of their now-closed workplaces. They clutched cups of coffee or tea and waved signs. Cars honked their support as they passed and people cheered in response. The unity and energy were palpable—a moment of hope in an otherwise dismal month.
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In late December, in a strategic move, riot police were withdrawn from the nightly protests. In their absence the protests became peaceful and less newsworthy. The lack of dramatic scenes and blatant abuse, allowed Georgian Dream (the ruling political party) to claim the movement was dead and that the violence had been manufactured by the now-arrested opposition leaders.
Georgian Dream’s (GD) man was sworn in as president and Pro-EU President Salome Zurabishvili left the presidential residency without a fight. Though she has not relinquished her title, the day many people had been waiting for passed uneventfully.
However, in contradiction to GD’s claims and in defiance of the new laws, the protests have continued. Rustaveli Avenue has been closed by nightly protests for 53 consecutive days. They celebrated New Year’s and Christmas in front of parliament with fireworks, food, and songs. They made a human chain, holding hands, that spanned the city, and marches through the city continue to be held daily.
Though the riot police have been removed, violence is still a factor. Instead of using official force, citizens, activists, and journalists are targeted by thugs (titushky), carrying bats, in the middle of the day. Videos and reports of people being beaten in the street are a regular part of the news cycle.
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The three-hour nationwide strike served as a warning, underscoring the Georgian people’s resolve to challenge the ruling party. People came out all across the country. Hundreds of businesses, universities, corporations, and organizations participated making their demands clear. The people of Georgia want the political prisoners to be released and for new elections to be held.
Whether there will be a full national strike or not is yet to be seen.
Though the protests have changed in style, the substance and rhetoric are the same. Georgians want a say in their country and they see Russia as an obstacle to their sovereignty and independence. A predominant theme of the protests, and Tbilisi’s street art, is resistance to Russia. Citizens call GD members, ‘Russian slaves.’ Pictures with anti-Russian images or sayings cover posters and art comparing GD to Putin cover walls.
There are good reasons for Georgians to focus on Russia. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, breaking off two of its regions, occupying them, and calling them autonomous. This move violated the territorial integrity of Georgia and locked it into a frozen conflict, preventing Georgia from joining NATO and complicating its integration with the EU.
Aside from military invasion, Russia also has a history of using puppet governments to control its “neutral” neighbors. Russia has done this in pre-2014 Ukraine and Belarus. For many people, the GD party has shown its Russian strings. Not only did it halt EU integration and pass Russian-esque laws, but it has direct ties to Putin through its founder and backer Bidzina Ivanishvili.
There is some mystery around Ivanishvili. Though he is not an active politician, it is widely believed that he controls every governmental institution in Georgia. He lives in a modern glass house overlooking Tbilisi. He keeps a garden of rare trees, a pool of sharks, and a zoo filled with exotic animals—which I suppose is what you do when you have over seven billion dollars.
Ivanishvili made his money in Russia during Perestroika and in the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union. After he started his own bank, he joined the “Semibankirschina,” an elite group of seven bankers. These wealthy men financed Yeltsin’s re-presidential election. In return, they used Yeltsin’s government to gain control of state-owned companies, dictate policies, and make huge profits. In so doing, they went from clever businessmen to oligarchs.
When Putin came to power, he brought the oligarchs to heel. Those who bent the knee continued to make money, those who resisted ended up in prison or dead. Ivanishvili and his wealth went unscathed. It is not a stretch to conclude that Georgian Dream’s appeasement of Russia has more to do with Ivanishvili’s loyalty to Putin than it does with the betterment of Georgia.
However, in politics, even puppets have a will of their own, and Ivanishvili is not just appeasing Russia. He is also aligning with China.
While GD’s Russian connection is openly criticized, their growing ties to China’s Communist Party (CCP) have gone understated. Under GD leadership in 2016, Georgia was included in China’s Belt and Roads initiative and a year later, a free-trade deal was agreed to.
In 2023, Georgia signed a Strategic Partnership agreement with China. In which Georgia supported the ‘One China Principle,’ a position that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China. Since then, GD has awarded China the tender for several major infrastructure projects throughout Georgia, including roads, tunnels, and ferries.
Along with infrastructure China also initiated propaganda projects in Georgia. Through social media, the CCP has pushed the message that China is stronger, more advanced, and more capable than America. It has also founded a Confucius Institute in Tbilisi, promoted Mandarin classes, gave Georgians visa-free travel to China, and offered scholarships for Georgians to study in China.
Not all of the pro-China propaganda is coming from China. Anti-Western political parties use China as an alternative to the West. They depict China as a faithful international representative, a fair mediator with Russia, and a defender of Georgia’s territorial integrity. Their main message is that China, not the EU or the US, is key to Georgia’s future.
However, China has never acknowledged Georgia’s territorial borders and it has consistently abstained or voted against Georgia’s UN resolution to support people displaced from Russian-occupied territories.
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Having lived in Southeast Asia for several years, the soft power play of China’s Belt and Roads Initiative and anti-Western propaganda are familiar to me. They mirror what the CCP is doing in Nepal and what it has done in dozens of other countries. Yet, I was surprised to see it here in Georgia.
Why is China investing in Georgia? For that matter, why does Russia continue to cling to Georgia and why should the EU or the US care about Georgia’s future?
Georgia is strategically important for global trade. It is a crucial part of the Southern Gas Corridor Pipeline, which goes from Azerbaijan, through Georgia, Turkey, and into Europe. With its position on the Black Sea, Georgia is the key to the shortest route from China to Europe. This route is called the Middle Corridor or the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). Originally, the Middle Corridor was the brainchild of Turkey, but since Russia invaded Ukraine it gained international attention for its potential to be an alternative to Russia’s Northern route.
Georgia is the backbone of the Middle Corridor. However, it lacks the infrastructure to support mass trade. Which has led to competition over infrastructure projects and/or influence in the region. The main players in this drama are GD, Russia, China, and the EU, with the US and Turkey close behind.
Being a post-Soviet country, bordering Russia, Georgia is within Russia’s sphere of influence. In “Putin Logic” this makes Georgia Russia’s domain. Aside from imperialist rationality, Georgia is important to the Russian economy. It is part of a group of countries; Turkey, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and the UAE, who act as third-party delivery services for Russia. They receive sanctioned items and then pass them along to Russia and vice versa. For these reasons, Russia needs a Russian-friendly government in Georgia.
Russia opposes the Middle Corridor, seeing it as a threat to its trade routes and gas exports. Instead of investing in Georgian infrastructure, like the other powers. Russia vocalized concerns about threats to its security and started building its own Black Sea port off of Abkhazia, one of Georgian territories it is occupying.
The Middle Corridor is a strategic opportunity to link Central Asia with Europe, free from Russian or American dependency or control. Developing projects throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus would also give China unprecedented influence in regions historically dominated by Russia. Through trains, roads, ferries, and technology, China’s new Silk Road will be paved with debt and data.
The Middle Corridor is an alternative to Russia. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, 86% of land trade between Europe and China went through Russia. The EU has earmarked 10 billion Euros to develop the Middle Corridor with the hope that by 2030 it will be able to accommodate Europe’s supply and demand. There was also hope to increase the capacity of the Caspian pipeline, so it could better service Europe.
Similar to China, the EU wants a secure and reliable trade route. Though, for the EU that means less Russian and Chinese control.
GD had multiple choices on which countries to partner with and whose interests to adhere to. The international community waited to see which way Georgia was going to go, Russia, China, or the EU. GD made its intentions clear when it awarded the construction of the Anaklia Black Sea port to a Chinese-Singaporian consortium, led by the CCP-owned company CCCC.
It further reinforced its dependency on China in 2024, when GD halted Georgia’s ascension to the EU and blocked EU grants until 2028.
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Given China’s history of debt traps, shoddy work, and empty promises, why would GD choose China over the EU?
Some analysts theorize GD is using China as protection from Russia and leverage over the EU. This position would hold merit if GD had not halted negotiations with the EU or if China offered security guarantees or acknowledged Georgia’s territorial integrity. None of this has happened. The rhetoric from Ivanishvili and GD members make their motivation clear. They are not being strategic, they are being ideological.
China, like Russia, shares Ivanishvili’s autocratic, anti-Western leanings. China is happy to provide money and supplies without requiring democratic practices or the protection of human rights. China is more likely to assist GD in oppressing Georgians than to criticize them for it. In choosing China, Georgian Dream did not defy Russia, or gain leverage over the EU, it picked a side in a battle of world order.
~ The Georgian People
Ivanishvili and GD leaders may look like Russian puppets, but the reality is even worse. They are acting out their own authoritarian anti-liberal impulses. While Russia may have leverage over Ivanishvili, GD is choosing to align itself with powers that will support the party, at the expense of the Georgian people. Whether it is Moscow, Beijing, or both, the result will be the same for citizens: repression. Which makes it all the more important to recognize that GD’s connections to the CCP are just as dangerous as its ties to Russia.