October 2024

Himalayn Games Of Power

Like all good things, we will start with food.

I arrived late in Kathmandu, tired, freezing, and not up for an adventure, so I was relieved to find a small restaurant still open a few blocks from my hostel. The restaurant was empty except for an older woman. She smiled at me, gestured to a table, then disappeared into a backroom. Moments later she reappeared with a cup of tea, a plate of steaming dumplings, and a small bowl of sauce. “Momo,” she announced as she set the plate in front of me.

The momo was filled with curry vegetables and the sauce had the tongue-numbing bite of Szechuan pepper. This combination, of Chinese and Indian flavors, was novel to me. While I knew Nepal was geographicly sandwiched between China and India, until that first bite of momo, I had not considered the overlap between the three countries.

We often use food as a representation of culture; however, the evolution of most food goes well beyond a country’s borders. History of migration, trade, war, and occupation all leave their mark on our food and Nepal’s momo is no exception. Momo probably originated in Tibet and, like many Tibetans, migrated across borders to settle in Nepal. Adapting to its new environment, momo evolved to include local ingredients and styles, becoming Nepali, while reflecting its Trans-Hymalian origin and current Indian influence.

Mirroring its food, Nepal walks a delicate balance between India and China. Through conversations and travel, I have come to appreciate Nepal’s efforts to remain independent and the precariousness of its position. Despite its imposing neighbors, Nepal has managed to maintain its autonomy. With growing industries and strategic foreign policy, it is building influence in the international arena. In an age of diminishing hegemony, Nepal and its momos are a lesson in the power of small states.

“Mirroring its food, Nepal walks a delicate balance between India and China.”

India: A Marriage of Friendship and Necessity

Even from the perspective of a tourist, the fingerprints of India’s relationship with Nepal are visible, as are the faultlines. On a local level, Indian and Nepali people share close linguistic, familial, and religious ties. Thanks to an open border policy, there is an active exchange of students, workers, and tourists between the two countries. Along with citizens, there is also an exchange of goods. India is by far Nepal’s largest trading partner.

Ironically, while eating at an Indian restaurant in Kathmandu, a friend and I got into a discussion about Nepal’s imports and exports. My friend was quick to inform me that the majority of products sold in Nepal are from India. When I got home, I checked all of the personal items I bought in Nepal. My shampoo, toothpaste, chapstick, and soap were all made in India. My favorite dark chocolate and chili lime-flavored chips were also made in India. The only things I owned that were made in Nepal, were a pair of pants and knit slippers.

My experience matches trade reports. Being a primarily agricultural-based economy, sandwiched between India and China, Nepal imports the majority of its goods and essentials from India. Except for textiles, Nepal has a solid textile industry, to which my pants and slippers are a testament. In its turn, India is the largest recipient of Nepal’s exports.

Beyond cultural and economic ties, the Nepalis-Indian relationship runs through both countries’ security doctrines. This security alliance was formed under British India and solidified by an independent India over a mutual fear of China. Nepal and India run joint training exercises, share military supplies, and have an exchange of high-level officials. To get a full picture of the cohesion between the two countries’ militaries, consider the Nepali Gurkhas.

The Nepali Gurkhas are world-renowned fighters. They have participated in all of the major wars of the 20th century as well as the majority of conflicts. Gurkhas are a prominent feature of Bahrain’s Royal Reserve Unit, Singapore’s police force, and the British military. However, they have the closest ties with the Indian army. Indian independence, Nepali Gurkhas have made up the majority of India’s Gurkha battalions. A tradition that was seen as mutually beneficial as well as symbolic.

Gurkhas

I first encountered Gurkhas in Pokhara. At the time, I was living in a small cabin on one of the mountains surrounding the lake. It was a quiet spot, well outside the city. I was accustomed to being alone, so it was a bit of a shock when I stepped outside my door and saw a hundred or so men crawling up the mountainside towards me. Dropping into a crouch on my porch, in an ill-conceived attempt to hide, I watched as the men approached my house. Like a wave, they broke at the bed of flowers lining my porch and continued up the hill, swerving around my cabin. Once I realized they didn’t care about me, I stood up and tried to act normal.

From my vertical vantage point, I saw several older men in military uniforms. Seeing me in turn, they nodded and smiled. One spoke some English and introduced himself as a Gurkha and a veteran. Gesturing towards the men, he explained that they were training Gurkhas. ‘It is every Nepali boy’s dream to be a Gurkha,’ he said, smiling and nodding.

That day’s training consisted of crawling up my mountain, running up and down the other mountains carrying weighted packs, and rowing around the lake. They would train until sunset and do it again the next day. The veteran told me that successful soldiers would have options to work all over the world, but most would go to India or work for the British. Either way, they would be guaranteed lifelong financial stability. That was the first and last time I saw Gurkha trainees at my doorstep, but now and then I spot a canoe going back and forth across the lake at top speed.

As the veteran Gurkha described, many Nepalis Gurkhas serve extended contracts in India and return to Nepal with fat pensions. However, thanks to an act passed by the Indian government in 2023, the promise of financial stability is no longer true. India is opting to recruit Gurkhas for a limit of four years. Instead of paying a pension, soldiers will receive one lump sum at the end of their contract. Nepal has expressed anger over this decision and is reconsidering allowing its Gurkhas to serve in India at all.

“I was in the Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) a few years back. I served as a royal guard in different royal palaces in Bahrain. After serving 1.5 years as a soldier I started having anxiety, a sleeping disorder, and depression too.” -Sandesh

The Cracks Begin To Show

The controversy over the Gurkhas is not the only scizum in Nepal and India’s relationships. Like most marriages, this ideal match soured on several fronts. In 2015, Nepal experienced a record-breaking earthquake that decimated the capital city, Kathmandu. The destruction is still visible in 2024. Whole streets are left abandoned with crumbling buildings and cracked roads. After the earthquake, the Nepali government pulled together and signed a long-anticipated constitution, declaring itself a secular nation and leaning into a more democratic style of government. India did not appreciate Nepal’s rebranding.

Several politicians rejected Nepal’s new identity. The spokesperson for the BJP, Bizay Sonkar Shashtri said, [Nepal] “is, was, and will always remain a Hindu nation.” India also expressed its concerns that the new constitution would inspire further violence with the minority groups along the Indian border.

These statements were followed by a six-month-long blockade that prevented Nepal from receiving fuel from India during a time when Nepal was already hurting. The blockade was established by an indigenous group protesting the new constitution, however, it is generally accepted that the Indian government was behind it. India denies any involvement, but no one believes them. This experience left permanent scars on the Nepali psyche and severely damaged the Nepali-Indian relationship.

At the top of this pile of conflict, is a land dispute between Nepal and India. India published a map, in 2019, showing the territories of Kalapani, the Lipulekh pass, and Limpiyadhura as being included in the Indian borders. What is more, India and China signed an agreement over Nepal’s Lipulekh corridor, without including Nepal in the discussions. For Nepal, this is a clear violation of its sovereignty.

Regardless of their growing animosity, both countries recognize their mutual dependence and continue to work together. However, in the wake of India’s unilateral actions. Nepal has moved closer to China. Strengthening ties with China has helped Nepal reduce its dependency on India and gives Nepal leverage in an unbalanced relationship. However, making deals with a dragon comes with its own set of risks and problems.

China And Nepal

Though China does not share the same cultural or historical ties with Nepal that India does, it has just as much to gain from a relationship. For China, Nepal represents a gateway to South Asia, a security threat, and a means to gain regional dominance. If China wants to obtain hegemonic status, and it seems like it does, Nepal is an important piece in that new world order puzzle.

By gaining access to Nepal, China will have the means to export goods, culture, and influence through Nepal into Asia via land, expanding its New Silk Road. To this end, China has proposed connecting the two countries by roads and railways. In exchange, China has given Nepal access to several of China’s many ports and provided many economic incentives.

While India is a regional competitor, it is Nepal’s Tibetan refugee population that China fears. The Tibetans have a long history of fighting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China annexed Tibet in 1951. For a few years after annexation, the Tibetan government managed to hold on to a semblance of autonomy. However, in 1959, the CCP crushed the Tibetan army and the Dalai Lama fled the country, along with thousands of Tibetans. Since then, Tibetans have been fighting to hold their nation together and preserve their culture.

Today, the majority of Tibetans have been displaced and live as refugees. Although China has referred to them as terrorists, Tibet’s primary weapon is protesting and bringing international attention to China’s actions in Tibet. It might seem like China would be indifferent to smears on its reputation. However, the Tibetian claim threatens the legitimacy of China’s ‘One China’ policy. Which is a vision of China that includes Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Tibet. Without international recognition of its desired borders, China’s sovereignty will be contested and fought.

To mitigate the Tibetan threat, China leans on the Nepalese government to regulate and repress the Tibetan population. In practice, this looks like constant surveillance, bans on celebrations, and crackdowns on protests. There is also a fear that Nepal will sign an extradition agreement which could result in Tibetans being sent back to China.

Tibet In Pokhara

The reality of the Tibetan situation was brought home to me when I met a Tibetan refugee in Pokhara. I was walking along the promenade when a young woman approached me with a collection of handmade jewelry. While I looked at the bracelets, she told me about how her family came from Tibet and how she had grown up in a refugee village. She invited me to visit her village and told me how to get there.

A few days later I followed her directions and found myself on a bus headed towards her village. Having been to refugee camps before, I was bracing myself for abject conditions. However, what I found was a cozy functional village with shops, a clinic, a monastery, and a school. It was far from luxurious, but the Tibetans made the most of what they had. I had not gotten far into the village when a man flagged me down and invited me into a large nondescript shop. The inside of the shop was covered in hundreds of handmade Tibetan carpets.

The man explained that the carpet shop was the primary source of income for the village and that many of the refugees worked there. This was important because in the mid-90s Nepal stopped giving Tibetans refugee status. This means anyone coming in after that point cannot legally work, travel, pursue higher education, or utilize government services, and many are born stateless. This move by the Nepali government was made to secure its relationship with China.

I noted that the village was more like a village, than a refugee camp. He nodded and said it was supposed to be temporary, but it has become permanent. The Nepali government has also acted to prevent Tibetans from resettling in another country. Stupidly, I asked how he felt about Nepal. He made a face and told me that the Nepali government is just an extension of the Chinese. I asked if he wanted to go back to Tibet. He said, of course, he wanted to go back, but that it was not possible.

China: A Study In Seduction

As soon as India revealed itself as not being a reliable partner, China swooped in and cozied up to Nepal’s far-left political parties. To be fair, China was not initially thrilled with the Nepalese Moeist party and supported the monarchy in attempts to suppress it. Ideology is not everything. After the fall of the monarchy, China got over its disdain and developed friendly relations. Offering Nepal 1.6 billion dollars in infrastructure projects as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It also supplies Nepal with weapons, holds joint military training, and provides aid for the military and police force. To strengthen economic ties Xi Jinping proposed the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network. This rail line would open up transit through the Himalayas, connecting Nepal to China via Tibet, allowing for easy passage of goods. These moves have thoroughly stepped on India’s toes.

Utilizing its soft power, China is also pursuing Nepal on a cultural level through education and tourism. I first learned about this from a Chinese teacher I met at my hostel. She told me about her government’s initiatives to make travel to Nepal easy for Chinese citizens. China built Nepal’s new international airport and funded another. It has also promoted Chinese culture and language schools throughout Nepal. Many Nepalis are studying Chinese with the hope of capitalizing on an influx of wealthy Chinese tourists. Presumably, they will be able to get jobs in the hotels China is building on the massive amounts of land it has purchased around Pokhara and throughout Nepal.

The education goes both ways, the teacher I met also told me about the many Chinese students she met in Kathmandu. They were studying English there as it was much cheaper than studying in China. In their turn, China has made it easy for Nepalis to study in China, offering scholarships and grants to promising students. One journalist noted this trend saying, “…soon a day will come when the future leadership of Nepal will be educated in Beijing and Shanghai rather than in Indian universities…”

Nothing Is Free

While China has a lot to offer Nepal, everything comes with a catch and so far their relationship has not been without its complications. Through the BRI China is providing India with billions of dollars, but that money is not a gift. It comes in the form of a loan that is expected to be paid back with interest.

At the same time, China’s promised infrastructure projects have been slow to get started and several of them have been canceled. Remember the new airport in Pokhara? The airport was completed, however, it has not yielded the international traffic the Chinese expected and now Nepal is stuck with a large bill and a high interest rate. Once they realized the airport was not going to pay for itself, the Nepali government asked China to turn the loan into a grant. China said it would look into it. In the meantime, Nepali officials have expressed concern that they might have walked into a debt trap and have opened an investigation into the airport.

Nepal’s Balancing Act

“ The ability to amplify Tibetan voices is a negotiating card that should not be given up. ”

China and India are not the only countries interested in Nepal. Since Obama, the U.S. has tried to shift its attention to Asia. For the U.S. Nepal provides an opportunity to check China and pull India closer into its sphere. In 2017 the US offered Nepal a grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Despite protests and riots, the Nepali government ratified the MCC’s plan in 2023. The MCC is currently providing Nepal with 500 million dollars worth of infrastructure projects: focusing on building roads, and electrical grids, and facilitating cross-border electrical trade.

Critics of the MCC, largely Chinese, say it is a form of American imperialism or a play against China, making Nepal a pawn in America’s power games. While the U.S.’s motivation can be characterized as anti-Chinese, Nepal’s acceptance of the grant is not. In the same way, that Nepal used China to ease its dependency on India, it is using the US to prevent it from being subsumed by China or smothered between its two bordering countries.

Mirroring China, the US is also focused on the Tibetans as a part of their regional strategy. Back in the 1960s, the CIA armed, trained, and supported Tibetan fighters in their resistance to the CCP. Today, the US champions Tibetain’s rights as refugees and supports the Dali Lama’s displaced government. Mid-2024, Biden signed a bi-partisan bill promoting the rights of the Tibetans and pushing for China to negotiate with them. Several members of the US Congress visited the Dalai Lama in India and proclaimed that China would not have a say in choosing the next Dalai Lama.

The US and Europe’s interest in human rights and the Tibetans provides Nepal further opportunities to manage China’s encroaching influence without having to rely on India. At the moment it seems like Nepal caters to China’s insecurities. However, Nepal could benefit from a strong Tibetan population backed by international support. The ability to amplify Tibetan voices is a negotiating card that should not be given up.

Joining international alliances to protect Tibetan rights would also help Nepal deepen connections with non-regional powers. This move fits well with Nepal’s history of humanitarian diplomacy. Nepal has a questionable record of domestic human rights, however it is a part of several multilateral human rights collisions. Remember the Gurkhas? As a part of UN peacekeeping forces thousands of Gurkhas have been deployed all around the world. Building strong ties with a diverse range of countries legitimizes Nepal’s autonomy and adds another layer of protection from its neighbors.

Nepal’s Trump Card

The drive from Kathmandu to Pokhara is long, frustrating, and beautiful. The better part of twelve hours is spent on a winding road following an awe-inspiring river. Nepal boasts more than 6000 such rivers, along with numerous glaciers and lakes, so it is not surprising that Nepal is a powerhouse of hydropower. One researcher described it as the potential Saudi Arabia of hydropower. As of 2024, Nepal has not tapped its full potential, but it is setting itself up to be a major energy exporter. Most recently, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh signed an agreement, allowing for the sale of Nepali energy to Bangladesh via India.

Such trilateral agreements help hold all parties accountable and will make it more difficult for India to exploit or control Nepal’s resources. India has already pushed its weight around by refusing to buy any energy that comes from Chinese-funded power plants. Resulting in Nepal giving Chinese contracts for hydropower plans to India. To avoid ceding too much power to India, Nepal should seek out further trilateral trade deals as well as pursue investments and alliances from non-regional actors.

Much of Asia suffers from pollution. Cities shut down for days, children are kept from school, and people are told to avoid exercising, all because of dangerous levels of pollution. Though a lot of this is caused by burning waste and fields, fossil fuel is the main culprit. Recognizing the risks that pollution and global warming expose their population and economy to, China and India are working hard to reduce their carbon emissions. India has an ambitious goal of becoming C02 net negative by 2070. This trend will create a demand for new sources of energy. Nepal and its hydropower will be an important part of Asia’s energy future, making Nepal an important player.

Final Thoughts

The greatest limitation on Nepal is not its size or geography, but its internal political instability. While Nepal has managed to hold its own, its position is precarious. India and China have both been able to manipulate its government and population. However, a legitimate political front could further utilize the fact that China and India need Nepal.

One of the iconic scenes in Game of Thrones (HBO) is Varys telling Tyrion a riddle about power. “Three great men sit in a room. A king, a priest, and a rich man. A sell-sword stands between them. Each great man tells the sell-sword to kill the other two. Who lives and who dies?” The point is, as Varys says, “Power lies where men believe it does.” I, like many, got to Nepal and saw China and India. We tend to center narratives around the large and powerful, leaving smaller states to be viewed as subjects or ignored. However, this reductionism is merely perspective, not destiny.